Show Me the Economy - Occupational Projections for Cache County, Utah

The biennial update to Utah's occupational projections have been released and can be found here: http://www.jobs.utah.gov/wi/pubs/outlooks/state/index.html.  But first. check out these highlights:

Cache County Highlights

Matt Schroeder, Regional Economist

The projected occupational growth rate in Cache County is slightly below the rest of the state on average at 2.3 percent annually through 2024. Utah statewide projected growth is 2.7 percent. The 2,530 projected annual openings in Cache County from 2014 to 2024 represent about 4 percent of all projected openings in the state.

The occupations with the highest growth expectations are, on average, those that require the most education. Jobs that typically require a doctoral or professional degree are projected to grow 2.7 percent annually through 2024. Growth in openings for physicians, physical therapists and psychologists are driving this trend.

Expectations for healthcare practitioners and healthcare support occupations in Cache County are worth highlighting. The healthcare industry is supplying large numbers of annual openings and is expected to grow at more than 3 percent every year over the next eight years. Registered nurses have the strongest demand outlook among healthcare jobs, with expected growth of 3.7 percent or about 40 openings a year, and they earn median wages of nearly $58K per year. Nursing, medical and dental assistants are also expected to be in demand with about 60 openings per year combined. These jobs offer median wages between $22K and $28K per year, but require less education.

After registered nurses, perhaps the most noteworthy occupations in terms of expected demand and wages are applications software developers, mechanical engineers and accountants/auditors. Jobs such as these in the areas of business/finance, engineering and information technology, tend to offer high wages for the level of education required and consistently exhibit a strong growth outlook. Application software engineers are projected to grow by about 3.2 percent or 20 openings per year in Cache County. They typically require a bachelor’s degree and earn median wages of $69K per year. Similarly, accountants and auditors are projected to grow by about 3.2 percent or 20 openings annually and earn median wages of $55K per year.

There are many other occupations in the region that are projected to offer excellent opportunities as well — electrical engineers, mechanical engineers, engineering techs, cement masons and concrete finishers, environmental science techs, and management analysts just to name a few. You can learn more about these occupations and others through the Utah Occupational Explorer where you can explore and compare occupations of interest in detail by region, wage level, typical education required, projected growth, and demand. Before digging into the details though, take a look at the interactive data visualization above to see the big picture of the occupational outlook for Cache County.

About Utah's Occupational Projections

Mark Knold, Supervising Economist

“The government knows everything about everyone.”

Fortunately, that statement is not true. Yet society still looks to the government to provide answers to comprehensive and complex questions that have their foundation within individual decisions and activities. One subject frequently directed toward the government is individual-level information about the economy — particularly, what occupations are in demand, what occupations pay well and have lucrative outlooks, and ultimately, what occupation(s) should I build my career upon?

It takes the accumulation of a wide array of individual information to answer these questions. Employers provide the foundation information about the occupations they employ. Jobs are held by individuals, but employers provide the profile information about the job itself, not any particular individual.

Since society desires to profile such a broad spectrum of the economy — occupational profiles and the occupational distribution within the economy — only government is in the unique position to collect, analyze and provide answers for said desire. Yet, no government program or regulatory agency mandates any comprehensive occupational reporting from individuals or businesses. Therefore, government attempts to fill the void with an ongoing, robust and voluntary survey of employers — a survey where employers are asked to provide details about their various occupations, including descriptions, quantities, wages/salaries and location. Through this survey emerges an occupational portrait of an economy.

The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) structures and funds the survey, yet the individual states conduct the survey. Under BLS administration, all states use the same methodology; therefore, occupational profiles are comparable across states.

Through this survey, analysts discover how industries are populated with various occupations. Accountant is an occupation, yet accountants can be found across many different industries. Other occupations may be more exclusive to certain industries; for example, doctors are largely found only in the healthcare industry. One of the survey’s products is that industries can be profiled with their general mix of occupations. This is called an industry’s occupational staffing pattern.

This brings us back to the original questions: what occupations are in demand, what occupations pay well and have lucrative outlooks, and ultimately, what occupation(s) should I build my career upon?

The foundation is to make informed forecasts about how industries will expand/contract over the next 10 years. By applying existing occupational staffing patterns to each industry’s projected change, a trained economic analyst can then make an extrapolation about how occupations will correspondingly increase/decrease. Knowledgeable analyst judgment further refines the occupational expectations, such as knowing an occupation will grow faster than in the past, with the result being a set of occupational projections that accumulate to profile a state or regional economy.

A new set of occupational projections are done every two years to keep the information fresh even though economies do not change dramatically in short order. Because of slow change, updated occupational projects generally continue the overall message of preceding occupational projections. But economies do modify with time, and therefore, subtle changes will arise with each new set of occupational projections.

Utah’s most recent occupational projections are found here: http://www.jobs.utah.gov/wi/pubs/outlooks/state/index.html. These projections look forward to the year 2024.

The occupational profile is structured from the general to the detailed, mimicking the structure of a family tree. First, broad occupational categories are defined, such as management or healthcare occupations; then, subcategories are defined; and finally, individual occupations are defined. Individual occupations are the heart of the occupational projections. But overall patterns and characteristics do emerge when observing the broader categories.

While a Utah statewide profile leads the way, Utah’s local economies are not homogenous; therefore, nine Utah subregions are also profiled. Due to confidentiality restraints and statistical reliability, the amount of occupations available will diminish the smaller a subregion; but, occupations comprising the backbone of a regional economy will be available.

 

Rich County Economic Update

Rich County Better Off Than It Looks in Early 2015

By Matt Schroeder

Rich County appeared a little slow out of the gate in early 2015, but this is primarily due to a single employer and does not suggest broad concern for the overall economy. In fact, other indicators suggest that the outlook for Rich County is quite good. Employment in leisure and hospitality is growing quickly, taxable sales are up, and new construction of retail structures signals increasing consumer demand. Overall, the indicators are reaffirming that the long term trajectory of economic performance for the county is positive.

Cache County Economic Update

Cache County Continues Steady Growth in Early 2015

By Matt Schroeder

Cache County began 2015 with solid, consistent economic performance. Taxable sales were up more than 7.3 percent with particular strength in retail markets. Employment growth was steady and broad-based at 2.6 percent despite an extremely low unemployment rate. Wages are still relatively flat, but overall, the indicators are reaffirming that the long term trajectory of economic performance for the county is still positive.

Box Elder County Economic Update

Box Elder County Picking Up Steam in Early 2015

By Matt Schroeder

Box Elder County has picked back up in early 2015. Employment growth improved markedly after a lull in late 2014. Taxable sales were up with particular strength in motor vehicles thanks in part to low oil prices. Unemployment remained low and initial unemployment insurance claims are back to pre-recession levels. Wages are still flagging a bit, but overall, the indicators are reaffirming that the long term trajectory of economic performance for the county is still positive.

Local Insights updated on the web

By Mark Knold, Supervising Economist 

Shelter is one of humanity’s basic needs. That is why housing is everywhere. Since housing is so ubiquitous, it becomes an important component in an economy’s foundation, and as such becomes an economic indicator.

In this issue of Local Insights, we look at the demand for housing structures, the amount of housing permits and their history, and how this history shows that housing demand follows the ups and downs of a region’s economic performance. In evaluating the volume of housing permits, we also parallel the health and vitality of the local economy.

People need jobs that supply them income in order to afford housing. Jobs are not the only factor, as things like affordability and the ability to obtain lending also play their part in housing demand. But the foundation of housing demand is the health of the job market.

The graph shows Utah statewide housing permits. A trend of normal permitting activity is evident from 1996 through 2004. Permits rose during the pre-Great Recession boom, then became lethargic for the seven years following. It is just recently that the volume of permit activity is again approaching something normal. That in itself is an economic indicator of an improved Utah economy.

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To read more, see the latest issues of Local Insights. To receive a printed copy, please call 801-526-9785.